Budget Alignment Analysis

Cross-referencing reform package recommendations against actual National Budget allocations, with consolidated government spending by function and department-level detail.

R471.6bn

Total Allocated

R620.7bn

Total Recommended

R149.1bn

Funding Gap (24.0%)

0 funded

5 partial

0 unfunded

Package Status

Funding Status by Reform Package

1Infrastructure Unblock

Partially FundedR325.8bn / R421.5bn77% funded

Energy and logistics infrastructure allocations have been updated significantly for 2025/26. The Eskom debt-relief programme has been revised to R230bn (from R254bn) with R140bn disbursed by March 2025. PRASA's MTEF allocation has nearly doubled and now exceeds the prior BRRR recommendation. Transnet capex has ramped sharply via government-backed borrowing. Water, digital, and municipal infrastructure remain below recommended levels.

2SMME & Employment Acceleration

Partially FundedR13.0bn / R28.6bn45% funded

SMME and employment programmes remain the most severely underfunded package. No large new SEFA capitalisation was announced in the 2025 or 2026 Budgets. Public employment programme funding increased modestly in 2025/26 and a new Presidential youth employment pathway was added in the 2026 Budget. The structural gap to address 46% youth unemployment persists.

3Human Capital Pipeline

Partially FundedR98.7bn / R121.0bn82% funded

The Human Capital package has seen large allocation increases in 2025/26, primarily driven by the full NSFAS appropriation (R55.4bn, substantially higher than the partial estimate in prior data) and the major ECD expansion following the DBE transfer (R13.6bn). TVET and NHI implementation remain underfunded relative to committee targets. The package funding gap has narrowed significantly once NSFAS and ECD are correctly measured.

4Trade & Industrial Competitiveness

Partially FundedR11.7bn / R23.2bn50% funded

Industrial policy incentives improved modestly in 2025/26 with DTIC incentive schemes at approximately R5.4bn annually (R16.3bn over MTEF), up from R5.1bn. A new EV production incentive is being designed. Critical minerals beneficiation, AfCFTA facilitation, and export promotion remain severely underfunded relative to committee recommendations.

5State Capacity & Governance

Partially FundedR22.4bn / R26.4bn85% funded

State capacity and governance allocations have improved substantially in 2025/26. SARS received R3.5bn additional over the MTEF in the 2024 MTBPS and a further R7bn over the MTEF in the 2026 Budget, targeting R120bn in tax debt collection. The NPA allocation has grown to R6.1bn in 2025/26 (from R2.3bn in prior data), reflecting state capture trial infrastructure. The package is now the best-funded relative to committee recommendations, though the recommended targets have also been revised upward.

Well-Funded Line Items

Eskom Debt Relief (conditional equity conversion)R230.0bn

PRASA Capital Injection and Fleet RecapitalisationR19.2bn

Transnet Operational Turnaround SupportR25.5bn

FATF Exit Legislative Package ImplementationR0.0bn

Largest Funding Gaps

Renewable Energy Transmission Grid ExpansionInfrastructure Unblock

R25.7bn

NHI Implementation — Phase 1 Pilot InfrastructureHuman Capital Pipeline

R18.7bn

Water Infrastructure Investment (bulk supply and wastewater)Infrastructure Unblock

R14.0bn

TVET College Recapitalisation and Curriculum ModernisationHuman Capital Pipeline

R5.7bn

Digital Infrastructure — SA Connect Phase 2Infrastructure Unblock

R5.0bn

National Student Financial Aid Scheme (NSFAS)Human Capital Pipeline

R4.6bn

Infrastructure Unblock

Gap: R95.7bn (22.7%)

Line Item	Allocated	Recommended	Gap	Department	Status
Eskom Debt Relief (conditional equity conversion) Eskom debt-relief programme revised to R230bn total (down from R254bn) as Eskom's financial position improved. R140bn had been advanced by 31 March 2025; the 2025/26 payment was approximately R80bn. Eskom reported net repayments of R18.8bn in 2025/26. The programme is substantially complete.	R230.0bn	R230.0bn	+R0.0bn	Department of Public Enterprises / National Treasury	Funded
PRASA Capital Injection and Fleet Recapitalisation MTEF allocation of R19.2bn now exceeds the prior Portfolio Committee recommendation of R18.5bn. The 2026 Budget added a further R5.8bn special appropriation for rolling stock fleet renewal, bringing potential total support to ~R25bn. Funding status upgraded to 'funded' relative to original BRRR target.	R19.2bn	R18.5bn	+R0.7bn	Department of Transport	Funded
Renewable Energy Transmission Grid Expansion No updated direct public allocation for transmission grid expansion in 2025/26 Budget. The Independent Transmission Projects Procurement Programme (ITPPP), procuring ~1,164 km of new lines, is privately financed with government procurement facilitation. Public-sector energy infrastructure overall is R59.2bn in 2025/26 (Annexure D) but this includes all energy SOC capex. The R16.3bn figure from the 2024/25 MTBPS is retained pending a specific transmission-grid appropriation. Energy Portfolio Committee recommendation of R42bn remains relevant.	R16.3bn	R42.0bn	−R25.7bn	Department of Mineral Resources and Energy / Eskom Transmission	Partially Funded
Water Infrastructure Investment (bulk supply and wastewater) Updated to R12bn representing the DWS bulk water grants (Regional Bulk Infrastructure Grant + Water Services Infrastructure Grant) specifically. Full DWS vote is R46.4bn in 2025/26 including operational costs. Major capital projects include Lesotho Highlands Phase 2 (R53.3bn total), uMkhomazi (R24bn), and Olifants Management Model Phase 2 (R25bn), many relying on Budget Facility for Infrastructure funding.	R12.0bn	R26.0bn	−R14.0bn	Department of Water and Sanitation	Partially Funded
Transnet Operational Turnaround Support No direct operational subsidy appropriation. Transnet capex is funded from own resources and commercially borrowed funds backed by substantially expanded government guarantees (up R145.8bn to R661bn total). The R76.6bn MTEF capex plan (2026/27–2028/29) implies ~R25.5bn per year, up from R12–14bn historical levels. Funding status upgraded relative to original R22bn DPE committee BRRR target.	R25.5bn	R22.0bn	+R3.5bn	Department of Public Enterprises	Funded
Digital Infrastructure — SA Connect Phase 2 SA Connect Phase 2 total project cost confirmed at R3bn (up from R2.3bn in prior MTEF). The 2026 Budget added a R700m special appropriation for the Department of Communications in 2026/27. Still well below the R8bn recommended to connect all public institutions and reach 80% household broadband.	R3.0bn	R8.0bn	−R5.0bn	Department of Communications and Digital Technologies	Partially Funded
Municipal Infrastructure Grant (water and sanitation components) MIG allocation for 2025/26 is R19.8bn, up from R17bn in 2024/25 revised. Trending toward the recommended R21bn by 2026/27. The 2026 Budget introduced a split delivery model: municipalities with poor spending capacity will have funds shifted to indirect (national) delivery. Note: only 55% of 2024/25 MIG was spent by end-December 2024.	R19.8bn	R21.0bn	−R1.2bn	Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs	Partially Funded
Package Total	R325.8bn	R421.5bn	R95.7bn

SMME & Employment Acceleration

Gap: R15.6bn (54.5%)

Line Item	Allocated	Recommended	Gap	Department	Status
SEFA (Small Enterprise Finance Agency) Capitalisation No large new equity injection for SEFA announced in 2025 or 2026 National Budgets. SEFA operates on its MTEF baseline (~R250m/yr from the fiscus) plus own lending income. Portfolio Committee on Small Business Development has repeatedly recommended higher capitalisation; the gap of ~R4.4bn to the recommended R6.5bn remains. DSBD total MTEF allocation is ~R2.1bn covering multiple programmes.	R2.1bn	R6.5bn	−R4.4bn	Department of Small Business Development	Partially Funded
SMME Red Tape Reduction / BizPortal Integration Primarily an IT and operational reform — low fiscal cost but underfunded relative to system integration targets. No material change from prior MTBPS baseline.	R0.3bn	R0.5bn	−R0.2bn	Department of Small Business Development	Partially Funded
Youth Employment Intervention — YES Programme Matching YES is primarily a private-sector programme with government tax incentives (via DTIC). The 2026 Budget added R459m for the Presidential National Pathway Management Network (youth employment) in 2026/27. Government matching for YES placements updated to R2bn reflecting broader employment incentive support. Still well below the R5bn target for 1 million placements.	R2.0bn	R5.0bn	−R3.0bn	Department of Employment and Labour	Partially Funded
Expanded Public Works Programme (EPWP) The employment programmes budget line (covering EPWP, Community Works Programme, and Jobs Fund) is R20.7bn in 2025/26, up from R18.9bn in 2024/25. EPWP specifically estimated at ~R6.5bn within this envelope. The R4.6bn spending addition for public employment programmes in 2025/26 reflects government's expanded commitment. Committee recommendation to shift EPWP toward skills-linked programmes remains unimplemented.	R6.5bn	R8.0bn	−R1.5bn	Department of Public Works and Infrastructure	Partially Funded
Informal Economy Trading Infrastructure and Support Trading space upgrades, registration support and working capital for informal traders. No significant change from prior year. Severely underfunded relative to informal sector scale.	R0.6bn	R3.5bn	−R2.9bn	Department of Small Business Development	Partially Funded
SMME Procurement Reform — Set-Asides Monitoring Compliance monitoring and supplier database. Primarily a governance reform with minimal direct fiscal cost.	R0.2bn	R0.3bn	−R0.1bn	National Treasury / DSBD	Partially Funded
Township and Rural Entrepreneurship Programme (TREP) Spatial-targeted enterprise development. Committee recommended significant scale-up. No material change from prior year baseline.	R1.3bn	R4.8bn	−R3.5bn	Department of Small Business Development	Partially Funded
Package Total	R13.0bn	R28.6bn	R15.6bn

Human Capital Pipeline

Gap: R22.3bn (18.4%)

Line Item	Allocated	Recommended	Gap	Department	Status
National Reading and Literacy Crisis Response Basic Education committee BRRR recommended a dedicated reading crisis programme. Current allocation covers only PIRLS participation and partial curriculum support. No material change from prior year.	R0.8bn	R3.5bn	−R2.7bn	Department of Basic Education	Partially Funded
TVET College Recapitalisation and Curriculum Modernisation TVET allocation increased to R13.8bn in 2025/26 from R13.1bn. The 2026 Budget added R2.1bn over the MTEF specifically for upgrading training workshops and equipment. Growth trajectory toward R15.7bn by 2027/28. DHET committee continues to recommend uplift for infrastructure and lecturer quality.	R13.8bn	R19.5bn	−R5.7bn	Department of Higher Education and Training	Partially Funded
Early Childhood Development (ECD) Phase 1 — Subsidy Expansion ECD allocation has expanded dramatically following the transfer from DSD to DBE: from R4.1bn (partial estimate in prior data) to R13.6bn in 2025/26, growing to R17.4bn by 2027/28. The 2026 Budget added R12.8bn over three years and raised the per-child daily subsidy to R24. Recommended updated to R18bn (target for full coverage of 800,000+ registered children). On current trajectory, full coverage is within reach by 2028/29.	R13.6bn	R18.0bn	−R4.4bn	Department of Basic Education (post transfer from Social Development)	Partially Funded
NHI Implementation — Phase 1 Pilot Infrastructure NHI direct grant allocation ~R3.3bn in 2025/26. The 2026 Budget revises NHI-related funding to ~R9.3bn in 2026/27 (direct provincial grant R475m + indirect ~R7.8bn). Formal NHI rollout is paused pending a Constitutional Court ruling (May 2026 hearing). Allocations fund preparatory infrastructure and primary care capacity. The R22bn Health committee estimate for Phase 1 primary care contracting infrastructure remains the benchmark.	R3.3bn	R22.0bn	−R18.7bn	Department of Health	Partially Funded
National Student Financial Aid Scheme (NSFAS) NSFAS full appropriation in 2025/26 is R55.4bn (prior data entry of R17.6bn reflected only a sub-component or earlier partial estimate). The 2026 Budget revised 2025/26 up to R58bn but then cut 2026/27 by R3.7bn to R54.3bn. Recommended updated to R60bn reflecting committee recommendations for full coverage of all qualifying students and elimination of the accommodation underfunding crisis. NSFAS is now the largest single line item in this package.	R55.4bn	R60.0bn	−R4.6bn	Department of Higher Education and Training	Partially Funded
Advanced Manufacturing / Green Transition Skills Programme EV, solar, green hydrogen artisan pipeline. Committee noted R4bn needed for 50,000 transition artisans over 5 years. No material change from prior year.	R1.4bn	R4.0bn	−R2.6bn	Department of Higher Education and Training / DTIC	Partially Funded
Primary Health Care Platform Strengthening (PHC revitalisation) Health committee BRRR recommended R12bn for full clinic revitalisation and community health worker formalisation. No material change from prior year.	R7.6bn	R12.0bn	−R4.4bn	Department of Health	Partially Funded
TB and Communicable Disease Control Portfolio Committee noted underfunding relative to 2025 TB Elimination targets. No updated figure available for 2025/26.	R2.8bn	R3.5bn	−R0.7bn	Department of Health	Partially Funded
Package Total	R98.7bn	R121.0bn	R22.3bn

Trade & Industrial Competitiveness

Gap: R11.5bn (49.6%)

Line Item	Allocated	Recommended	Gap	Department	Status
DTIC Industrial Incentives (MCEP, EMIA, Black Industrialists) DTIC incentive schemes total R16.3bn over the 2025/26 MTEF (~R5.4bn/yr), slightly above the prior R5.1bn estimate. The incentive portfolio covers the Automotive Investment Scheme, BPO, film incentives, SEZs, clothing and textile competitiveness, industrial park revitalisation, and a new EV production incentive being designed. The IDC's Black Industrialists programme has approved commitments of R7.4bn from its own balance sheet. The Trade & Industry committee continues to recommend R9.8bn to restore the full incentive pipeline.	R5.4bn	R9.8bn	−R4.4bn	Department of Trade, Industry and Competition	Partially Funded
Critical Minerals Beneficiation — Catalytic Investment Fund No dedicated beneficiation fund established in 2025 or 2026 Budgets. R0.4bn proxy reflects existing IDC support. Committee recommended a R4.5bn catalytic vehicle. Gap remains.	R0.4bn	R4.5bn	−R4.1bn	Department of Mineral Resources and Energy	Partially Funded
AfCFTA Implementation — Trade Facilitation and Capacity AfCFTA secretariat and NTB resolution mechanisms. Severely underfunded relative to opportunity. No material change from prior year.	R0.3bn	R1.5bn	−R1.2bn	Department of Trade, Industry and Competition	Partially Funded
Automotive Production and Development Programme (APDP Phase 2) Automotive master plan support. Committee recommended R5bn to cover EV transition incentive top-up. A new dedicated EV production incentive is under design in 2025/26.	R3.8bn	R5.0bn	−R1.2bn	Department of Trade, Industry and Competition	Partially Funded
Special Economic Zones Capital and Infrastructure SEZ capex allocation; committee recommended uplift tied to Coega, dti-campus, and Richards Bay expansions. No material change from prior year.	R1.5bn	R3.2bn	−R1.7bn	Department of Trade, Industry and Competition	Partially Funded
Export Market Development and Brand SA EMIA and Brand SA combined. Committee recommended scale-up to support AfCFTA market entry. No material change from prior year.	R0.3bn	R1.2bn	−R0.9bn	Department of Trade, Industry and Competition	Partially Funded
Package Total	R11.7bn	R23.2bn	R11.5bn

State Capacity & Governance

Gap: R4.0bn (15.2%)

Line Item	Allocated	Recommended	Gap	Department	Status
SARS Capacity Expansion (staff, systems, audit capability) SARS allocation updated to approximately R4.8bn in 2025/26, reflecting the base administration vote (~R4-5bn/yr) plus MTEF additions from the 2024 MTBPS (R3.5bn over MTEF = ~R1.2bn/yr additional). The 2026 Budget added a further R7bn over the MTEF (~R2.3bn/yr) to hire 1,500 more debt collectors and target R120bn in tax debt collection. Finance committee BRRR recommendation of R5.5bn is now nearly within reach; full R300bn+ tax gap closure requires sustained investment beyond current levels.	R4.8bn	R5.5bn	−R0.7bn	South African Revenue Service	Partially Funded
National Prosecuting Authority Capacity (NPA + SCCU) NPA allocation confirmed at R6.1bn in 2025/26 from the official ENE — substantially higher than the R2.3bn in prior data (which reflected only a sub-programme or earlier partial estimate). Growth to R6.6bn by 2027/28. Recommended updated to R7.5bn reflecting the scale of state capture trials, SCCU expansion, and witness protection programme requirements. The NPA's resource position has improved significantly.	R6.1bn	R7.5bn	−R1.4bn	Department of Justice and Constitutional Development	Partially Funded
Special Investigating Unit (SIU) and Procurement Reform SIU recoveries far exceed its budget; committee recommended expansion proportional to referral backlog. No updated figure available for 2025/26.	R0.9bn	R1.5bn	−R0.6bn	Presidency / Special Investigating Unit	Partially Funded
Government Technology Modernisation (GITOC / e-government) Includes Home Affairs digital ID rollout and shared IT infrastructure. Committee recommended accelerated rollout. No material change from prior year.	R2.6bn	R4.0bn	−R1.4bn	Department of Communications and Digital Technologies / DPSA	Partially Funded
Public Service Commission and DPSA Professionalisation Competency frameworks, SMS salary reform, and performance management systems. Lower cost but chronically under-resourced. No material change from prior year.	R1.2bn	R2.0bn	−R0.8bn	Department of Public Service and Administration	Partially Funded
AGSA Audit and Accountability Infrastructure Material irregularity follow-up capacity. Close to recommended but still below target. No material change from prior year.	R1.5bn	R1.8bn	−R0.3bn	Auditor-General of South Africa	Partially Funded
SOE Oversight and Reform Programme (DPE / DPME coordination) Operational grants and turnaround support for SOE portfolio excluding Eskom (covered under Package 1). No updated figure available; the DPE is being restructured following the transfer of some SOEs.	R5.3bn	R7.8bn	−R2.5bn	Department of Public Enterprises	Partially Funded
FATF Exit Legislative Package Implementation Primarily legislative reform with minimal direct fiscal cost. SA successfully exited FATF greylisting in October 2024 following passage of required legislation. Programme complete.	R0.0bn	R0.0bn	+R0.0bn	National Treasury / Financial Intelligence Centre	Funded
Package Total	R22.4bn	R26.4bn	R4.0bn

Methodology Note

Updated March 2026 with 2025/26 figures from the February 2025 and February 2026 National Budget Reviews and Annexure D. NSFAS allocated updated from a partial sub-component estimate (R17.6bn) to the full appropriation (R55.4bn); recommended revised accordingly. ECD figure reflects the major post-transfer expansion under DBE. PRASA MTEF total now exceeds the prior BRRR recommendation. NPA figure from Vote 25 ENE 2025 is substantially higher than the 2024 baseline. Line items without confirmed updated figures retain 2024/25 MTBPS baseline and are marked with their original source.

Sources: 2025 Budget Review (Feb 2025), 2026 Budget Review (Feb 2026), 2026 Budget Review Annexure D, Vote 25 ENE 2025 (Justice), 2024/25 MTBPS, Parliamentary Committee BRRRs. Currency: ZAR billions. Base year: 2025/26.