Synthetic measure of South Africa's reform implementation progress — weighted by strategic importance.
Overall Index
Last updated
2018-10-20
34% of full implementation potential
Simulated index progression based on known implementation status changes over the past six quarters.
Each reform package is scored independently. Package weights reflect strategic importance and cross-sector growth multipliers.
Remove physical bottlenecks that constrain all economic activity
Remove friction from SA's best short-term jobs engine
Invest now because the lags are a decade long
Align incentives with comparative advantage and compete globally
None of the above works without a capable state
Scenario analysis showing the reform effort required to reach milestone scores.
+6 pts
Near-term achievable
Requires ~15–20 stalled ideas to advance to 'partially implemented'. No new legislation needed — primarily administrative momentum, enforcing existing mandates, and unblocking routine procurement decisions across Infrastructure and State Capacity packages.
+16 pts
Medium-term reform momentum
Requires comprehensive movement on the ~30 proposed-but-unmoving ideas, particularly in Human Capital and SMME packages. Assumes full implementation of the Infrastructure Unblock electricity reforms and sustained fiscal consolidation over two budget cycles.
+31 pts
Transformational reform
Would represent a step-change in South Africa's reform trajectory — comparable to the most ambitious reform periods in middle-income country history. Requires implementation of flagship Infrastructure reforms, meaningful Human Capital progress, and credible anti-corruption outcomes. Achievable over a 5–7 year horizon with sustained political will.
The Reform Progress Index is a synthetic, weighted composite of implementation progress across South Africa's five reform packages. It is designed to summarise the trajectory of reform, not to capture political intent or parliamentary debate.
| Status | Index credit | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Implemented | 1.00 | Full reform benefit realised |
| Partially implemented | 0.60 | Substantial but incomplete progress |
| Under review | 0.30 | Active government attention |
| Drafted | 0.25 | Legislative or regulatory text exists |
| Debated | 0.20 | Parliamentary discussion ongoing |
| Proposed | 0.10 | Policy idea on record, no action |
| Stalled | 0.05 | Acknowledged but blocked |
| Abandoned | 0.00 | No credit |
Package weights reflect assessed strategic importance and cross-sector growth multipliers: Infrastructure (28%), Human Capital (22%), State Capacity (20%), SMME & Employment (16%), Trade & Industrial (14%). These weights are based on the theory of change described in each package and on the binding constraint literature for South Africa.