Theme: Energy planning
Responsible: Department of Mineral Resources and Energy
Significant progress: REIPPP Bid Window 7 awarded 3,940 MW of renewable energy projects (wind, solar PV, and battery storage) in 2025, with financial close expected 2026. The 300+ days without load-shedding indicates that private embedded generation combined with Eskom's EAF recovery has stabilised supply ahead of formal IRP procurement timelines. IRP 2024 remains under NERSA review. Key risk: transmission grid capacity must expand to absorb BW7 projects — the NTCSA capitalisation programme (id=62) is on the critical path. The end of load-shedding does not reduce the urgency of the IRP investment programme; it creates the window to build the energy system SA needs rather than the emergency generation it required.
Who backs this reform, who needs convincing, and which interests or red lines shape political feasibility.
Backers
18
2 stakeholders
Negotiation weight
22
3 conditional actors
Opposition weight
0
0 opposing actors
Review coverage
0/5
All mapped stance notes are still draft
Provenance warning
Every mapped stakeholder stance for this idea is still draft. The coalition score is directional only until at least the high-influence actors are reviewed.
Coalition Read
Anchor: Presidency / Operation Vulindlela. Highest-leverage swing actor: Eskom.
Political Tractability
No reviewed signals · 0% of mapped influence has been reviewed.
The IRP 2024 update is a cross-departmental coordination priority for Operation Vulindlela.
Interest: Cross-cutting structural reform coordination across energy, logistics, water, digital infrastructure, and visa reform. Operation Vulindlela, establish…
Concern: Implementation bottlenecks within line departments; regulatory capture of NERSA and ICASA; SOE institutional inertia; ensuring quick wins translate in…
Engagement path: Already fully engaged. Seeks line department buy-in, NEDLAC social compact legitimacy, and international DFI financing alignment on key reform milesto…
BUSA supports the IRP 2024 update for regulatory certainty on the generation mix underpinning energy investment decisions.
Interest: Cross-sector structural reform across energy security, logistics efficiency, regulatory certainty, labour market flexibility, and digital infrastructu…
Concern: Slow implementation pace relative to policy announcements; inconsistency between reform rhetoric and regulatory decisions (e.g. NERSA tariff approvals…
Engagement path: Already actively engaged. Seeks implementation accountability mechanisms with published milestones, predictable regulatory timelines, and NEDLAC outco…
Eskom supports the IRP update but advocates for a generation mix that preserves baseload capacity during the transition.
Interest: Managing R400bn+ debt restructuring with government support; maintaining grid stability during the unbundling transition; preserving technical and ins…
Concern: Unbundling of the distribution arm (EDI) could fragment operational coherence and create regulatory gaps; transmission entity capitalisation requires…
Engagement path: Credible debt restructuring plan with government guarantees; adequate transition period for unbundling with clear milestones; grid investment ring-fen…
NUM supports the IRP update only if the coal phase-down timeline matches just transition fund disbursement to affected communities.
Interest: Mining employment security and worker safety; just transition pace that protects coal-dependent community livelihoods; collective bargaining rights in…
Concern: Accelerated coal phase-out without adequate income support, skills retraining, and community economic diversification; renewable energy job quality —…
Engagement path: Just transition fund with dedicated skills retraining and income support; coal community economic diversification plans with government commitments an…
NERSA supports the IRP update but insists its tariff methodology must be respected in any revised electricity mix.
Interest: Statutory mandate as National Energy Regulator: licensing, tariff regulation for electricity, gas, and petroleum pipelines; consumer price protection…
Concern: Reform proposals that bypass NERSA licensing (e.g. registration-only frameworks for embedded generation) reduce statutory jurisdiction and create regu…
Engagement path: Regulatory reform must strengthen rather than hollow out NERSA's capacity; adequate resources and staff to handle an expanded regulatory workload unde…
The IRP 2024 Update revises South Africa's long-term electricity generation mix, superseding the IRP 2019. It integrates sharply lower renewable energy costs, revised demand projections reflecting load-shedding's suppressive effect on growth, and accelerated coal retirement timelines aligned with Just Energy Transition commitments. The plan sets procurement targets for wind, solar PV, storage, and gas peakers through 2030 and beyond. South Africa's energy security and decarbonisation trajectory depend critically on this roadmap — investors, municipalities, and the NTCSA require IRP certainty to plan grid investments. As of early 2026, the draft IRP remains under public comment, delayed partly by political contestation over coal phase-down timelines in Mpumalanga. Finalisation would unlock private generation investment and provide NERSA with a regulatory framework for new capacity licensing.
Referenced in OECD Economic Surveys: South Africa
OECD SA Survey (2017, 2020, 2022, 2025). Consistently recommended as key structural reform; the 2025 survey estimates pro-competition reforms including energy could add ~4.5pp to GDP over 10 years.
Every month of delay in gazetting the IRP 2024 represents at least R2 billion in deferred private energy investment—the cost of regulatory uncertainty in capital-intensive infrastructure sectors. — Energy Council of South Africa, Q1 2025
The IRP 2024 update revises South Africa's long-term electricity mix to integrate accelerated renewable energy procurement, a revised coal decommissioning schedule aligned with Eskom's generation fleet condition assessments, and a confirmed 2,500 MW nuclear new-build allocation. The DMRE leads the process in consultation with NERSA, National Treasury, and Eskom, with a statutory public participation process required under the Electricity Regulation Act. An updated load forecast is the critical input — the IRP 2019 overestimated industrial demand — and revised projections must account for embedded generation growth, efficiency gains, and structural economic shifts. The IRP underpins all subsequent REIPPPP procurement decisions and should be gazetted no later than Q3 2025 to unblock Rounds 7–9.
Commission updated demand forecast study incorporating embedded generation uptake, industrial efficiency trends, and economic growth scenarios; peer-review by CSIR Energy Centre
Publish IRP 2024 draft for public comment in the Government Gazette with a 60-day comment period; convene regional public hearings in all nine provinces
Integrate comments and revise draft; obtain Cabinet approval at the Economic Cluster Cabinet committee
Publish final IRP 2024 in the Government Gazette; issue procurement schedules for REIPPPP Rounds 7–9 and the gas-to-power programme based on updated capacity requirements
Electricity Regulation Amendment Act — Competitive Electricity Market
Energy Bounce-Back and Industrial Energy Self-Generation
National Transmission Company Capitalisation and Grid Expansion
Eskom Restructuring — Generation, Transmission, and Distribution Unbundling
Freight Rail Third-Party Access and Transnet Separation
How to cite
Wilse-Samson, L. (2026). Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2024 Update — Revised Electricity Mix. SA Policy Space. NYU Wagner School of Public Policy. Retrieved 11 May 2026, from https://sa-policy-space.vercel.app/ideas/integrated-resource-plan-irp-2024-update-revised-electricity-mix?snapshot=2026-05-11
Data as of 2026-05-11 · latest PMG meeting 2026-05-08
Initiate rolling IRP review mechanism: annual monitoring report to Parliament on capacity additions, decommissioning milestones, and demand deviations, with a mandatory five-year full revision cycle
12 months from initiation to gazettal (Q1–Q3 2025); mandatory five-year full revision thereafter
R8–12 million for demand study, modelling, and public participation; absorbed within DMRE operational budget
No new primary legislation required. Electricity Regulation Act 4 of 2006 (Section 34) provides the statutory basis for ministerial IRP determinations. NERSA concurrence required on tariff implications.
Strong consensus within the economic cluster on the need for an updated IRP; the 2019 IRP's coal assumptions are widely acknowledged as outdated. Industry (SAPVIA, SAWEA, Minerals Council) and environmental groups broadly support the update. Political tensions exist around coal decommissioning timelines and NUM/AMCU labour implications.
Germany's Energiewende successive energy plans provide a model for structured revision cycles with parliamentary oversight. Australia's Integrated System Plan (AEMO) uses annual reviews with open-data demand modelling SA could replicate. IEA World Energy Outlook scenario methodology informed CSIR's modelling approach for prior IRP iterations.
PRASA Passenger Rail Recovery Programme