Skills & Educationunder reviewLong TermHigher Education and Training

NSFAS Sustainable Funding Model — Comprehensive Post-School Student Finance

Theme: Student finance

First raisedNov 2021Last discussedApr 2026

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Assessment

Growth Impact4/5

Feasibility3/5

Responsible: DHET / National Treasury / NSFAS

Feasibility Assessment

Low-medium. Politically charged; any move toward loans is framed as reversing #FeesMustFall gains. Fiscal pressure from audits and budget ceiling may force restructuring.

Stakeholder Landscape

Who backs this reform, who needs convincing, and which interests or red lines shape political feasibility.

Reviewer

Open review workspace

Backers

1 stakeholders

Negotiation weight

1 conditional actors

Opposition weight

0 opposing actors

Review coverage

0/2

All mapped stance notes are still draft

Provenance warning

Every mapped stakeholder stance for this idea is still draft. The coalition score is directional only until at least the high-influence actors are reviewed.

Coalition Read

81/100Coalition-ready

Anchor: COSATU. Highest-leverage swing actor: National Treasury.

Political Tractability

—Needs reviewed signals

No reviewed signals · 0% of mapped influence has been reviewed.

Backers1 stakeholder

COSATUCoalition anchordraftInfluence 9/10

COSATU supports expanded NSFAS funding as essential for working-class access to post-school education.

Interest: Worker protections under the Labour Relations Act and Basic Conditions of Employment Act; collective bargaining rights; equitable wage growth; just tr…

Concern: Labour market flexibility reforms that erode LRA and BCEA protections; Eskom unbundling without adequate just transition planning for NUM members; pri…

Engagement path: Meaningful social dialogue through NEDLAC before structural reforms are finalised; just transition funding ring-fenced in MTEF; skills retraining and…

Negotiation Priorities1 stakeholder

National TreasuryCritical swing actordraftInfluence 9/10

Treasury supports NSFAS reform only if it reduces the unsustainable funding trajectory and introduces means-testing discipline.

Interest: Fiscal consolidation with public debt stabilising below 75% of GDP; structural reforms that improve revenue without expanding contingent liabilities;…

Concern: Unfunded mandates in energy transition (JETP co-financing); Eskom's R400bn+ debt and how restructuring socialises costs; reform proposals that create…

Engagement path: Reforms must be fiscally neutral or revenue-positive over the MTEF window; SOE restructuring must demonstrably reduce contingent liabilities; credible…

Description

NSFAS funds approximately 500,000 students at universities and 440,000 at TVET colleges, with total expenditure exceeding R50 billion annually. The scheme faces a structural funding gap: income from student loan repayments is negligible (collection rate below 5%), making NSFAS effectively a grant system funded from the fiscus. The Sustainable Funding Model review, overseen by a Ministerial Task Team, is developing an income-contingent loan component for students above the R350,000 household income threshold, while retaining full grants for the poorest quintiles. NSFAS's administration has been plagued by financial irregularities, payment delays, and failed IT systems. Fixing the funding model without addressing NSFAS's operational governance would not achieve sustainability. As of early 2026, the task team's recommendations have been published; the policy shift to an income-contingent model faces significant student organisation opposition.

OECD

Referenced in OECD Economic Surveys: South Africa

OECD SA Survey (2017, 2020, 2022, 2025). Education quality improvement and infrastructure investment recommended across surveys.

NSFAS's R14 billion deficit represents a structural funding gap — not an administrative problem. Without a fundamental redesign of the eligibility model and repayment architecture, the scheme will crowd out other post-school education budgets entirely. — DHET Parliamentary Briefing, 2025