What economists see in Budget 2026

> Delivering the budget speech last Wednesday, Minister of Finance Enoch Godongwana said South Africa had reached a “turning point” in its finances. We asked four prominent economists for their opinion on the budget, South Africa’s prospects, and what still needs to be done. These economists are: Haroon Bhorat from the DPRU; Andrew Donaldson from SALDRU; Ada Jansen from Stellenbosch University, and Anna-Maria Oosthuizen from UNU-WIDER. Bhorat, Jansen, Oosthuizen and Donaldson approach the budget from different angles, from tax policy to infrastructure investment and state capacity, but a common theme runs through their assessments: fiscal stabilisation represents important progress, but it does not resolve the deeper constraints holding back economic growth.  They agree that the fiscal outlook has improved in important ways. The projected stabilisation of public debt marks a meaningful change after years of rising borrowing. Financial conditions have also become more favourable, with lower bond yields and more stable inflation expectations easing pressure on debt-service costs.  At the same time, they note that economic growth remains modest, unemployment remains high, and investment levels are still below those required to support a sustained expansion. In this environment, fiscal consolidation will be gradual.  “Stabilising the gross debt-to-GDP ratio at 78.9% is the central fiscal achievement”, as Oosthuizen put it. “In the Treasury’s debt and financial projections, there is a clear turnaround,” says Donaldson. “Debt has peaked at just under 80% of GDP, and for the first time in more than a decade, interest on debt is projected to increase more slowly than spending on education or health.” Part of this success stems from the higher-than-expected revenue collection by SARS. The overrun bodes well for confidence in SARS, says Donaldson, it takes the pressure off the fiscal system, and has allowed the government to forgo the planned R20-billion revenu