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SA Policy Space

Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2024 Update — Revised Electricity Mix

EnergyUnder reviewMedium TermRaised 4× in committeeEnergy

Theme: Energy planning

First raisedJul 2024Last discussedSept 2024No committee discussion in 12+ months4 meetings on the record ↓
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Reform at a glance

What changes
Update the electricity resource plan to guide the generation mix and future procurement.
Responsible actor (recorded)
Department of Mineral Resources and Energy
Recorded status
Under review — editorial assessment.
Milestone described by this status
Cabinet approval of final draft IRP 2025, 15 October 2025.
Next documented milestone
Verify implementation against the gazetted procurement and capacity milestones.
Source review details

Agent-prepared claim inventory from committed snapshot; primary-source checks only where explicitly dated. Pending human review. Proposal summary prepared from the recorded reform scope on 2026-09-20; it makes no claim of implementation or quantified impact. Numerical impacts and implementation claims below remain provisional where the findings identify unresolved checks.

  • Cabinet approved final draft IRP 2025 on 15 October 2025. The record saying the draft remained under comment in early 2026 needs correction. Forecast GDP gains are not measured outcomes.
  • Numerical or dated statements require source-by-source verification before reuse as established findings.
  • Numerical or dated statements require source-by-source verification before reuse as established findings.
  • Numerical or dated statements require source-by-source verification before reuse as established findings.
  • Recorded status is under_review. Scope of completion and present implementation have not been independently verified in this preparation.
  • Recorded owner: Department of Mineral Resources and Energy. Present allocation of responsibilities requires verification.
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Description

The IRP 2024 Update revises South Africa's long-term electricity generation mix, superseding the IRP 2019. It integrates sharply lower renewable energy costs, revised demand projections reflecting load-shedding's suppressive effect on growth, and accelerated coal retirement timelines aligned with Just Energy Transition commitments. The plan sets procurement targets for wind, solar PV, storage, and gas peakers through 2030 and beyond. South Africa's energy security and decarbonisation trajectory depend critically on this roadmap — investors, municipalities, and the NTCSA require IRP certainty to plan grid investments. As of early 2026, the draft IRP remains under public comment, delayed partly by political contestation over coal phase-down timelines in Mpumalanga. Finalisation would unlock private generation investment and provide NERSA with a regulatory framework for new capacity licensing.

Assessment

Growth Impact5/5
Feasibility4/5

Responsible: Department of Mineral Resources and Energy

Feasibility Assessment

Significant progress: REIPPP Bid Window 7 awarded 3,940 MW of renewable energy projects (wind, solar PV, and battery storage) in 2025, with financial close expected 2026. The 300+ days without load-shedding indicates that private embedded generation combined with Eskom's EAF recovery has stabilised supply ahead of formal IRP procurement timelines. IRP 2024 remains under NERSA review. Key risk: transmission grid capacity must expand to absorb BW7 projects — the NTCSA capitalisation programme is on the critical path. The end of load-shedding does not reduce the urgency of the IRP investment programme; it creates the window to build the energy system SA needs rather than the emergency generation it required.

Where the numbers stand

All indicators →
  • Eskom Energy Availability Factor72%2025

    +7 pp from 65% in 2020. Eskom Integrated Reports (Eskom IR)

  • Load Shedding (Electricity Shed)0 GWh2025

    −1798 GWh from 1798 GWh in 2020. CSIR / Eskom (CSIR Energy)

Next official read on this: Mining: production and sales, August 2026 — due 13 October 2026 (Stats SA schedule).

Series tagged to this idea’s binding constraint. The period beside each value is the latest observation this site holds, which can lag the official release: the series are rebuilt offline from the sources named, not read live.

Stakeholder Landscape

Who backs this reform, who needs convincing, and which interests or red lines shape political feasibility.

Backers

18

2 stakeholders

Negotiation weight

22

3 conditional actors

Opposition weight

0

0 opposing actors

Coalition Read

AI-drafted stances · 0 reviewed

79/100Mapped support: strong

Anchor: Presidency / Operation Vulindlela. Highest-leverage swing actor: Eskom.

Political Tractability

—Needs reviewed signals

No reviewed signals · 0% of mapped influence has been reviewed.

Backers2 stakeholders
Presidency / Operation VulindlelaCoalition anchorInfluence 10/10

The IRP 2024 update is a cross-departmental coordination priority for Operation Vulindlela.

Interest: Cross-cutting structural reform coordination across energy, logistics, water, digital infrastructure, and visa reform. Operation Vulindlela, establish…

Concern: Implementation bottlenecks within line departments; regulatory capture of NERSA and ICASA; SOE institutional inertia; ensuring quick wins translate in…

Engagement path: Already fully engaged. Seeks line department buy-in, NEDLAC social compact legitimacy, and international DFI financing alignment on key reform milesto…

Business Unity South Africa (BUSA)Coalition anchorInfluence 8/10

BUSA supports the IRP 2024 update for regulatory certainty on the generation mix underpinning energy investment decisions.

Interest: Cross-sector structural reform across energy security, logistics efficiency, regulatory certainty, labour market flexibility, and digital infrastructu…

Concern: Slow implementation pace relative to policy announcements; inconsistency between reform rhetoric and regulatory decisions (e.g. NERSA tariff approvals…

Engagement path: Already actively engaged. Seeks implementation accountability mechanisms with published milestones, predictable regulatory timelines, and NEDLAC outco…

Negotiation Priorities3 stakeholders
EskomCritical swing actorInfluence 8/10

Eskom supports the IRP update but advocates for a generation mix that preserves baseload capacity during the transition.

Interest: Managing R400bn+ debt restructuring with government support; maintaining grid stability during the unbundling transition; preserving technical and ins…

Concern: Unbundling of the distribution arm (EDI) could fragment operational coherence and create regulatory gaps; transmission entity capitalisation requires…

Engagement path: Credible debt restructuring plan with government guarantees; adequate transition period for unbundling with clear milestones; grid investment ring-fen…

National Union of Mineworkers (NUM)Negotiation priorityInfluence 7/10

NUM supports the IRP update only if the coal phase-down timeline matches just transition fund disbursement to affected communities.

Interest: Mining employment security and worker safety; just transition pace that protects coal-dependent community livelihoods; collective bargaining rights in…

Concern: Accelerated coal phase-out without adequate income support, skills retraining, and community economic diversification; renewable energy job quality —…

Engagement path: Just transition fund with dedicated skills retraining and income support; coal community economic diversification plans with government commitments an…

NERSANegotiation priorityInfluence 7/10

NERSA supports the IRP update but insists its tariff methodology must be respected in any revised electricity mix.

Interest: Statutory mandate as National Energy Regulator: licensing, tariff regulation for electricity, gas, and petroleum pipelines; consumer price protection…

Concern: Reform proposals that bypass NERSA licensing (e.g. registration-only frameworks for embedded generation) reduce statutory jurisdiction and create regu…

Engagement path: Regulatory reform must strengthen rather than hollow out NERSA's capacity; adequate resources and staff to handle an expanded regulatory workload unde…

OECD

Referenced in OECD Economic Surveys: South Africa

OECD SA Survey (2017, 2020, 2022, 2025). Consistently recommended as key structural reform; the 2025 survey estimates pro-competition reforms including energy could add ~4.5pp to GDP over 10 years.

Every month of delay in gazetting the IRP 2024 represents at least R2 billion in deferred private energy investment—the cost of regulatory uncertainty in capital-intensive infrastructure sectors. — Energy Council of South Africa, Q1 2025

Implementation Roadmap

The IRP 2024 update revises South Africa's long-term electricity mix to integrate accelerated renewable energy procurement, a revised coal decommissioning schedule aligned with Eskom's generation fleet condition assessments, and a confirmed 2,500 MW nuclear new-build allocation. The DMRE leads the process in consultation with NERSA, National Treasury, and Eskom, with a statutory public participation process required under the Electricity Regulation Act. An updated load forecast is the critical input — the IRP 2019 overestimated industrial demand — and revised projections must account for embedded generation growth, efficiency gains, and structural economic shifts. The IRP underpins all subsequent REIPPPP procurement decisions and should be gazetted no later than Q3 2025 to unblock Rounds 7–9.

1

Commission updated demand forecast study incorporating embedded generation uptake, industrial efficiency trends, and economic growth scenarios; peer-review by CSIR Energy Centre

Q1–Q2 2025DMRE / CSIR Energy Centre
2

Publish IRP 2024 draft for public comment in the Government Gazette with a 60-day comment period; convene regional public hearings in all nine provinces

Q2 2025DMRE
3

Integrate comments and revise draft; obtain Cabinet approval at the Economic Cluster Cabinet committee

Q3 2025DMRE / Presidency / Cabinet Economic Cluster
4

Publish final IRP 2024 in the Government Gazette; issue procurement schedules for REIPPPP Rounds 7–9 and the gas-to-power programme based on updated capacity requirements

Q3 2025DMRE / NERSA / IPP Office
5

Initiate rolling IRP review mechanism: annual monitoring report to Parliament on capacity additions, decommissioning milestones, and demand deviations, with a mandatory five-year full revision cycle

Annual from Q1 2026DMRE / Portfolio Committee on Mineral Resources and Energy
Timeline

12 months from initiation to gazettal (Q1–Q3 2025); mandatory five-year full revision thereafter

Estimated Cost

R8–12 million for demand study, modelling, and public participation; absorbed within DMRE operational budget

Required Legislation

No new primary legislation required. Electricity Regulation Act 4 of 2006 (Section 34) provides the statutory basis for ministerial IRP determinations. NERSA concurrence required on tariff implications.

Political Feasibility

Strong consensus within the economic cluster on the need for an updated IRP; the 2019 IRP's coal assumptions are widely acknowledged as outdated. Industry (SAPVIA, SAWEA, Minerals Council) and environmental groups broadly support the update. Political tensions exist around coal decommissioning timelines and NUM/AMCU labour implications.

International Precedents

Germany's Energiewende successive energy plans provide a model for structured revision cycles with parliamentary oversight. Australia's Integrated System Plan (AEMO) uses annual reviews with open-data demand modelling SA could replicate. IEA World Energy Outlook scenario methodology informed CSIR's modelling approach for prior IRP iterations.

International Comparisons

View all →
Morocco2016

Morocco's Noor concentrated solar power complex at Ouarzazate — 580 MW, world's largest CSP plant — was commissioned 2016–2018 with 8 hours of molten-salt thermal storage enabling night-time generation. Morocco targets 52% renewable electricity by 2030. World Bank and AfDB concessional finance blended with private equity reduced Morocco's energy import bill by USD 1 billion annually. SA's high solar irradiance and similar import dependency make this public-finance-plus-private-investment model directly applicable.

Approach

Morocco put a single state agency, MASEN, between the plant and the utility. MASEN assembled the site, water rights, grid connection and permits before going to market, then tendered each phase as a build-own-operate contract with a long-term power purchase agreement, so bidders priced construction and operation rather than development risk. Concessional loans and climate funds were blended with commercial equity to bring the contracted tariff down, and the state absorbed the gap between that tariff and what the national utility could pay. The complex was built in phases, with molten-salt storage designed in from the start so output extended past sunset.

Timeline: Dedicated agency established 2010, first phase commissioned 2016 and the complex completed by 2018; roughly five years from procurement design to a first operating plant

Lessons for South Africa

The IRP's hardest choice is not the megawatt split but who carries the risk on dispatchable low-carbon capacity, and Morocco's answer was an explicit, budgeted state subsidy channelled through one agency rather than a tariff argument at the regulator. Two things transfer. Storage should be procured as a service the plan specifies, as Noor's molten salt was, rather than left to be retrofitted once the renewable share bites. And developer risk was cut by the state doing site, water and grid work up front — directly relevant to an IRP whose wind and solar procurement targets currently assume grid connection that does not yet exist.

World Bank Noor Ouarzazate Solar Project Results 2019; IRENA Morocco Renewable Energy Report 2021

Evidence & Research

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Policy documents

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Status History

tracked since Mar 2026
  1. Recorded as Under review when status tracking began — held since at least Mar 2026.
    Mar 2026

Data as of 2026-10-12 · latest PMG meeting 2026-10-09