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SA Policy Space

Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2025 — Revised Electricity Mix

EnergyImplementedMedium TermAI draft, partly checkedRaised 4× in committeeEnergy

Theme: Energy planning

First raisedJul 2024Last discussedSept 20244 meetings on the record ↓
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Reform at a glance

What changes
Update the electricity resource plan to guide the generation mix and future procurement.
Responsible actor (recorded)
Department of Mineral Resources and Energy
Recorded status
Implemented — editorial assessment.
Milestone described by this status
Cabinet approval of final draft IRP 2025, 15 October 2025.
Next documented milestone
Verify implementation against the gazetted procurement and capacity milestones.
Source review details

Agent-prepared claim inventory from committed snapshot; primary-source checks only where explicitly dated. Pending human review. Proposal summary prepared from the recorded reform scope on 2026-09-20; it makes no claim of implementation or quantified impact. Reconciled against the post-migration snapshot on 2026-10-17 after #344 corrected the description and cleared or replaced the impact estimate from sourced audit findings; the summary and milestones still describe the corrected text. Historical claims retained as review history, not current findings. Reconciled again on 2026-10-17 after #353 corrected the status (and, for idea 35, the feasibility note) from a sourced recheck; the summary and milestones still describe the stored text. Reconciled again on 2026-10-18 for the IRP 2025 title and source correction; the summary and milestones still describe the stored text. Numerical impacts and implementation claims below remain provisional where the findings identify unresolved checks.

  • Cabinet approved final draft IRP 2025 on 15 October 2025. The record saying the draft remained under comment in early 2026 needs correction. Forecast GDP gains are not measured outcomes.
  • Numerical or dated statements require source-by-source verification before reuse as established findings.
  • Numerical or dated statements require source-by-source verification before reuse as established findings.
  • Numerical or dated statements require source-by-source verification before reuse as established findings.
  • Recorded status is under_review. Scope of completion and present implementation have not been independently verified in this preparation.
  • Recorded owner: Department of Mineral Resources and Energy. Present allocation of responsibilities requires verification.
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Description

AI draft, partly checkedThis idea's text was drafted with an AI model in March 2026. Some of its claims have been checked against sources and corrected; the rest has not. Treat its figures as unverified unless a linked source confirms them. How idea text is checked

The IRP 2025 revises South Africa's long-term electricity generation mix, superseding the IRP 2019. It integrates sharply lower renewable energy costs, revised demand projections reflecting load-shedding's suppressive effect on growth, and delayed coal retirement timelines. The plan sets procurement targets for wind, solar PV, storage, and gas peakers through 2030 and beyond. South Africa's energy security and decarbonisation trajectory depend critically on this roadmap — investors, municipalities, and the NTCSA require IRP certainty to plan grid investments. Cabinet approved the final IRP 2025 in October 2025. Finalisation is expected to unlock private generation investment and provide NERSA with a regulatory framework for new capacity licensing.

Assessment

Growth Impact5/5
Feasibility4/5

Responsible: Department of Mineral Resources and Energy

Feasibility Assessment

Significant progress: REIPPP Bid Window 7 awarded 3,940 MW of renewable energy projects (wind, solar PV, and battery storage) in 2025, with financial close expected 2026. The 300+ days without load-shedding indicates that private embedded generation combined with Eskom's EAF recovery has stabilised supply ahead of formal IRP procurement timelines. Cabinet approved the plan as IRP 2025 in October 2025. Key risk: transmission grid capacity must expand to absorb BW7 projects — the NTCSA capitalisation programme is on the critical path. The end of load-shedding does not reduce the urgency of the IRP investment programme; it creates the window to build the energy system SA needs rather than the emergency generation it required.

Drafted with an AI model in March 2026; not yet checked against sources.

Where the numbers stand

All indicators →
  • Eskom Energy Availability Factor72%2025

    +7 pp from 65% in 2020. Eskom Integrated Reports (Eskom IR)

  • Load Shedding (Electricity Shed)0 GWh2025

    −1798 GWh from 1798 GWh in 2020. CSIR / Eskom (CSIR Energy)

Next official read on this: Manufacturing: Utilisation of production capacity by large enterprises, August 2026 — due 5 November 2026 (Stats SA schedule).

Series tagged to this idea’s binding constraint. The period beside each value is the latest observation this site holds, which can lag the official release: the series are rebuilt offline from the sources named, not read live.

Stakeholder Landscape

Who backs this reform, who needs convincing, and which interests or red lines shape political feasibility.

Backers

18

2 stakeholders

Negotiation weight

22

3 conditional actors

Opposition weight

0

0 opposing actors

Coalition Read

AI-drafted stances · 0 reviewed

79/100Mapped support: strong

Anchor: Presidency / Operation Vulindlela. Highest-leverage swing actor: Eskom.

Political Tractability

—Needs reviewed signals

No reviewed signals · 0% of mapped influence has been reviewed.

Backers2 stakeholders
Presidency / Operation VulindlelaCoalition anchorInfluence 10/10

The IRP 2025 is a cross-departmental coordination priority for Operation Vulindlela.

Interest: Cross-cutting structural reform coordination across energy, logistics, water, digital infrastructure, and visa reform. Operation Vulindlela, establish…

Concern: Implementation bottlenecks within line departments; regulatory capture of NERSA and ICASA; SOE institutional inertia; ensuring quick wins translate in…

Engagement path: Already fully engaged. Seeks line department buy-in, NEDLAC social compact legitimacy, and international DFI financing alignment on key reform milesto…

Business Unity South Africa (BUSA)Coalition anchorInfluence 8/10

BUSA supports the IRP 2025 for regulatory certainty on the generation mix underpinning energy investment decisions.

Interest: Cross-sector structural reform across energy security, logistics efficiency, regulatory certainty, labour market flexibility, and digital infrastructu…

Concern: Slow implementation pace relative to policy announcements; inconsistency between reform rhetoric and regulatory decisions (e.g. NERSA tariff approvals…

Engagement path: Already actively engaged. Seeks implementation accountability mechanisms with published milestones, predictable regulatory timelines, and NEDLAC outco…

Negotiation Priorities3 stakeholders
EskomCritical swing actorInfluence 8/10

Eskom supports the IRP update but advocates for a generation mix that preserves baseload capacity during the transition.

Interest: Managing R400bn+ debt restructuring with government support; maintaining grid stability during the unbundling transition; preserving technical and ins…

Concern: Unbundling of the distribution arm (EDI) could fragment operational coherence and create regulatory gaps; transmission entity capitalisation requires…

Engagement path: Credible debt restructuring plan with government guarantees; adequate transition period for unbundling with clear milestones; grid investment ring-fen…

National Union of Mineworkers (NUM)Negotiation priorityInfluence 7/10

NUM supports the IRP update only if the coal phase-down timeline matches just transition fund disbursement to affected communities.

Interest: Mining employment security and worker safety; just transition pace that protects coal-dependent community livelihoods; collective bargaining rights in…

Concern: Accelerated coal phase-out without adequate income support, skills retraining, and community economic diversification; renewable energy job quality —…

Engagement path: Just transition fund with dedicated skills retraining and income support; coal community economic diversification plans with government commitments an…

NERSANegotiation priorityInfluence 7/10

NERSA supports the IRP update but insists its tariff methodology must be respected in any revised electricity mix.

Interest: Statutory mandate as National Energy Regulator: licensing, tariff regulation for electricity, gas, and petroleum pipelines; consumer price protection…

Concern: Reform proposals that bypass NERSA licensing (e.g. registration-only frameworks for embedded generation) reduce statutory jurisdiction and create regu…

Engagement path: Regulatory reform must strengthen rather than hollow out NERSA's capacity; adequate resources and staff to handle an expanded regulatory workload unde…

OECD

Referenced in OECD Economic Surveys: South Africa

OECD SA Survey (2017, 2020, 2022, 2025). Consistently recommended as key structural reform; the 2025 survey estimates pro-competition reforms including energy could add ~4.5pp to GDP over 10 years.

Evidence & Research

Research corpus →

Links proposed by lexical matching and screened by a calibrated research judge. Follow the paper for the full argument and its caveats.

Policy documents

No linked official-document evidence yet. Coverage is incomplete.

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Status History

tracked since Mar 2026
  1. Recorded as Under review when status tracking began — held since at least Mar 2026.
    Mar 2026
  2. Moved from Under review to Implemented on 17 October 2026
    trigger

Data as of 2026-10-18 · latest PMG meeting 2026-10-09