Trade OpennessdebatedMedium TermTrade, Industry and Competition

Poultry Industry Anti-Dumping and Local Production Expansion

Theme: Import tariffs/anti-dumping

First raisedNov 2022Last discussedJul 2024Dormant — not discussed in 12+ months

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Assessment

Growth Impact3/5

Responsible: Department of Trade, Industry and Competition / ITAC / DALRRD

Feasibility Assessment

Medium: ITAC has anti-dumping powers; EPA renegotiation is diplomatically complex with the EU. Poultry Master Plan provides coordination framework. Fiscally modest.

Stakeholder Landscape

Who backs this reform, who needs convincing, and which interests or red lines shape political feasibility.

Reviewer

Open review workspace

Backers

1 stakeholders

Negotiation weight

1 conditional actors

Opposition weight

0 opposing actors

Review coverage

0/3

All mapped stance notes are still draft

Provenance warning

Every mapped stakeholder stance for this idea is still draft. The coalition score is directional only until at least the high-influence actors are reviewed.

Coalition Read

70/100Negotiable

Anchor: DTIC (Dept. of Trade, Industry & Competition). Highest-leverage swing actor: Competition Commission.

Political Tractability

—Needs reviewed signals

No reviewed signals · 0% of mapped influence has been reviewed.

Backers1 stakeholder

DTIC (Dept. of Trade, Industry & Competition)Operational backerdraftInfluence 7/10

Poultry anti-dumping is a DTIC priority protecting local production and rural employment.

Interest: Industrial policy objectives — local content requirements, beneficiation, BBBEE transformation, SEZ development, and protection of manufacturing emplo…

Concern: Full logistics liberalisation without local content protections could hollow out domestic manufacturing by reducing input costs asymmetrically for ext…

Engagement path: Logistics and energy reforms include localisation provisions and domestic content requirements; trade agreements include industrial policy safeguards;…

Negotiation Priorities1 stakeholder

Competition CommissionNegotiation prioritydraftInfluence 7/10

The Commission supports anti-dumping measures only where genuine predatory pricing is demonstrated, not as general protection.

Interest: Reducing market concentration and promoting effective competition across freight, telecoms, financial services, food retail, and healthcare. Statutory…

Concern: SOE concessioning that creates private monopolies rather than competitive markets; spectrum concentration in telecoms post-auction; banking sector bar…

Engagement path: Already actively engaging across sectors. Needs reform designs to address market structure, not just ownership change — concessioning must include com…

Watchlist1 stakeholder

Business Unity South Africa (BUSA)High-salience observerdraftInfluence 8/10

BUSA is split on poultry anti-dumping; importers and retailers oppose duties while producers support them.

Interest: Cross-sector structural reform across energy security, logistics efficiency, regulatory certainty, labour market flexibility, and digital infrastructu…

Concern: Slow implementation pace relative to policy announcements; inconsistency between reform rhetoric and regulatory decisions (e.g. NERSA tariff approvals…

Engagement path: Already actively engaged. Seeks implementation accountability mechanisms with published milestones, predictable regulatory timelines, and NEDLAC outco…

Description

South Africa's poultry industry — employing approximately 36,000 workers directly and another 30,000 in feed, hatcheries, and processing — is under sustained pressure from imports of bone-in chicken portions, primarily from Brazil and the EU. ITAC investigations confirmed dumping margins of 13–62% on EU imports, leading to provisional anti-dumping duties in 2022 and final determinations in 2023. The Poultry Master Plan (2019–2023, under review), a social compact between DTIC, Astral Foods, Rainbow Chicken, SARI (SA Poultry Association), and AMCU/FAWU, targeted a 25% reduction in imports and 26,000 additional jobs — partially met. The 2025 review focuses on: extending and deepening anti-dumping duties, addressing feed cost competitiveness (yellow maize and soya meal pricing affected by drought and import logistics), expanding cold chain infrastructure in rural areas, and accelerating halal certification to open the African export market. Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Mozambique represent significant near-term export opportunities as AfCFTA implementation proceeds. The PC on Agriculture BRRRs 2023–2024 flag avian influenza biosecurity and small-scale poultry producer exclusion from master plan benefits as gaps requiring attention.

Every tonne of dumped chicken undermines jobs in Limpopo and the Eastern Cape — anti-dumping is not protectionism, it is levelling the playing field. — Agri-SA, PC on Agriculture BRRR 2023

Implementation Roadmap

ITAC implements and reviews final anti-dumping duties on EU and Brazilian bone-in chicken portions on an 18-month cycle, with SARS Customs deploying improved weight-based valuation protocols to address consignment mis-classification. DTIC convenes the Poultry Master Plan Steering Committee to update targets for 2024–2028, with new investment commitments from Astral, Rainbow, and Country Bird. DALRRD expands the Agro-Processing Support Scheme for cold-chain infrastructure investment by emerging poultry producers. Success is a 20% reduction in import volumes of designated products by 2027 and 15,000 additional direct jobs in the poultry value chain.