Using foresight analysis to estimate investments required for food security in South Africa until 2050

Food security in South Africa is threatened by climate change and water and energy constraints. Despite a productive agricultural sector, significant long-term investment is required to ensure food security by 2050. Key elements for investment are identified with a foresight-based framework focused on maize, soybean, and poultry as staple commodities. A structured scenario methodology based on provocations is used to highlight the variation in water and energy use in food systems. An estimated R3 trillion in total is required by 2050 to ensure food security in South Africa, including R1.8 trillion for water, R152 billion for energy, R330 billion for poultry sector development, and R644 billion for targeted food provisioning. Investments in logistics, smallholders, and agro-industrial development are essential. Achieving food security requires a coordinated response with public and private financing. These investment targets are reasonable, and an equitable, sustainable, and resilient f