Services-led growth in the context of de-industrialization: Opportunities for structural transformation and job creation in South Africa

Policy Paper 50 South Africa’s persistent unemployment crisis, with the unemployment rate reaching 32.0 percent in 2024, has intensified debates about viable pathways for structural transformation, following the sustained decline of the manufacturing sector. This paper investigates whether services-led growth can replace the role of manufacturing and identifies which services subsectors hold the greatest potential for productivity enhancement and employment creation. Keywords: Structural transformation, services-led growth, deindustrialisation, labour productivity, South Africa