Growth in the 21st century

Unlocking sustainable development in South Africa . ( This note is based on ERSA Policy Paper 37 , which contains d etailed references) From 1994, South Africa, like most of the world, trusted that economic expansion would naturally lead to progress in other areas. Until 2009, socio-economic redress and economic growth were prioritised, with limited recognition of the environment beyond guardrails to minimise destruction. By the late 2000s, climate concerns gained greater prominence as an understanding of their negative impacts on the economy and society emerged. In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, the focus shifted to harnessing green growth and using it as a conduit for foreign support to decarbonise the electricity sector and ensure a just energy transition. While seemingly bold new plans were announced (often including wildly optimistic targets), they were essentially a tweaking and rebranding of old ideas. The primacy of South Africa’s carbon-intensive growth model remained unchallenged. Growth was targeted via the protection and/or localisation of capital-intensive industries. Despite a promising start, social and economic progress stalled after the late 2000s. As growth slowed, poverty was increasingly targeted via fiscal transfers. This did not lead to economic inclusion, and the fiscal space to deal with other policy priorities, like climate change, was severely eroded. Halfway through the third decade of the 21 st century, South Africa had failed to achieve sustainable development during a period of relatively benign climatic conditions . Climate change and environmental degradation complicate policymaking. Global temperatures are projected to rise between 2.6 and 3.1 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. This trajectory is unprecedentedly risky: humanity has no experience in dealing with this speed or scale of climatic changes. Slower periods of climate change in the past have triggered mass extinction events.