Trade Turbulence: The Consequences of United States Tariff Increases for South African Exports

Policy Paper 41 The imposition of widespread import tariffs by United States (US) President Donald Trump in 2025, invoking powers under Section 232 and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), has introduced significant disruptions to global trade. South Africa (SA) is among the countries directly affected, with major export products such as vehicles, steel, and aluminium now subject to tariff hikes ranging from 25% to 50%. Additionally, a 10% reciprocal tariff on all imports into the US has been imposed, with a 30% rate scheduled to take effect from 1 August 2025 unless an alternative agreement is negotiated. These measures pose serious risks to South African exports, undermining the competitiveness of key sectors and eroding the benefits of preferential access under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Keywords: Tariffs, Trade Policy, Exports