Just Transition and the Labour Market in South Africa: Measuring Individual and Household Coal Economy Dependence

In this paper, we provide a robust quantitative estimate of jobs – both direct and indirect – associated with the coal sector in South Africa, and in so doing, explore the labour market profile and characteristics of the individuals and households linked to the coal sector. In particular, we are interested in the size and shape of the coal labour market. Understanding the labour market implications associated with a transition is pivotal in shaping policy decisions linked to the just transition. This paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate surrounding the just transition in South Africa, by carefully deriving a robust empirical estimate of the coal labour market in South Africa, and the related coal-based electrical utility industry in Mpumalanga. These initial empirical insights into the size and shape of the coal labour market can inform the scale and scope of these policy interventions. Given the heterogenous nature of the labour market, a diverse suite of policy interventions is likely to be required.