Socio-economic exposure to nature-related risks in the Southern African Development Community (WP/26/03)

Socio-economic exposure to nature-related risks in SADC Results indicate high and heterogeneous exposure across the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region, reflecting differences in economic structures, dependence on ecosystem services and biodiversity impacts. Physical risks are particularly acute, driven by strong reliance on services such as water provision, climate regulation and flood control. Net exports are highly vulnerable, with average exposure reaching 67% directly and 88% when indirect effects are included. Angola, Madagascar, Tanzania and Zimbabwe stand out for their pronounced dependence on ecosystem services. Transition risks also vary widely: Madagascar, Mozambique and Zambia face substantial direct exposure, while Angola is chiefly affected through its petroleum supply chains. Madagascar emerges as the country most at risk overall, combining high biophysical dependence with extreme biodiversity sensitivity. The assessment is subject to several data and methodological limitations, including reliance on static 2019 multi-regional input-output data, partial country coverage and constraints in environmental and ecosystem-service metrics. Despite these challenges, the paper highlights the urgent need for central banks and policymakers in Southern Africa to integrate nature-related risks into monitoring frameworks and to strengthen data and modelling capacities to guide effective and resilient transition strategies.