From school exit to degree completion: Gender differences along the SET pipeline in South Africa

South Africa has experienced substantial expansion in higher education participation over the past three decades, alongside marked shifts in the demographic and academic composition of National Senior Certificate (NSC) cohorts. Specifically, females are increasingly outperforming their male counterparts in both general NSC achievement and higher education access. These patterns coexist with a continued under-representation of women in science, engineering, and technology (SET) fields. This raises important questions about where gaps in the pipeline emerge, how they relate to readiness for SET study at the point of school exit, and how the changing profile of recent NSC cohorts will shape future gender gaps and/or the production of SET skills in South African universities. Using linked student-level administrative data on NSC examinations (2011–2021) and public higher education records (2012–2022), this paper examines gender gaps in SET-study readiness (based on NSC subject choices and performance) at secondary school exit, entry into SET qualifications, and graduation in SET fields. By considering multiple progression points, we distinguish between differences arising at the point of access to higher education and those emerging from within the system. Specifically, we locate at which stages gender gaps widen or attenuate; and assess the contribution of each stage to the overall gap. Finally, we simulate expected patterns in SET qualification completion accounting for recent trends in the performance and profile of NSC cohorts, providing insight into how current schooling dynamics may shape future SET graduate output, overall and between men and women.