Do North–South Free Trade Agreements Deliver Export Gains? Evidence from Morocco

This paper examines whether the United States–Morocco Free Trade Agreement (USMFTA), implemented in 2006, contributed to an increase in Morocco’s exports between 2004 and 2023. Using a Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimation of an augmented gravity model that controls for economic size, distance, institutional quality, and overlapping FTAs, it finds that the USMFTA had a negative effect on Morocco’s total goods exports. Sector-level results show similar effects on agri-food and automotive exports. In contrast, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the EU–Morocco agreement were associated with stronger export performance. The results show that structural, institutional, and implementation asymmetries can make it challenging for smaller economies to benefit from bilateral North–South trade agreements. The results also offer lessons for African countries seeking to develop their trade strategies amid the expected expiration of AGOA and growing fragmentation in the global trading system.