Reigniting investment in South Africa: Confidence, credibility and reform

This presentation “Reigniting investment in South Africa: Confidence, credibility and reform” by Dr Roy Havemann, Senior Economist at the Bureau for Economic Research explores the possible economic paths facing South Africa over the next five years, drawing on new scenario analysis from the Bureau for Economic Research (BER). Focusing on the period between 2026 and 2030, the presentation examined how different policy choices, implementation outcomes and external conditions could shape economic growth, employment and fiscal sustainability. Using detailed economic modelling, the analysis outlined three distinct trajectories – the Hadeda, Maribou and African Fish Eagle scenarios – ranging from continued low-growth stagnation to a high-growth path driven by effective reform implementation. The presentation highlighted that South Africa’s economic challenge lay not in a lack of ideas, but in the country’s ability to implement reforms consistently and at scale. Dr Havemann unpacked the key assumptions behind each scenario, explained what differentiated a high-growth outcome from continued low performance, and reflected on the role of policy implementation, institutional capacity and external risks. He also discussed what these scenarios could mean for South Africa’s medium-term economic prospects.