Disaster-induced import dynamics: Evidence from South African floods

This paper examines the impact of floods on regional import dynamics in South Africa. Floods can disrupt firms’ production activities and thereby hinder their participation in import markets. At the same time, firms may increase imports to compensate for disruptions in domestic supply networks. We study these opposing adjustment mechanisms using administrative firm-level data combined with detailed customs transactions records from South Africa. Analysing a monthly panel of municipal-level import volumes from 2013 to 2021, we find that floods do not have lasting effects on aggregate import dynamics on average.