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SA Policy Space

Upstream Petroleum Resources Development Bill

Regulatory BurdenStalledMedium TermRaised 8× in committeeMineral Resources and Energy

Theme: Oil and gas exploration

First raisedMay 2022Last discussedMar 20268 meetings on the record ↓
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Reform at a glance

What changes
Upstream Petroleum Resources Development Bill
Responsible actor (recorded)
Department of Mineral Resources and Energy / PASA / National Treasury
Recorded status
Stalled — editorial assessment.
Milestone described by this status
Status scope has not yet been independently documented; it may cover only part of this reform.
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Next milestone not yet documented
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Description

The Upstream Petroleum Resources Development Act, assented to by President Ramaphosa in November 2024, ends the decades-long legal ambiguity that governed petroleum exploration under the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act (MPRDA). The Act separates the petroleum regime from mining, establishing a dedicated framework administered by the South African Agency for Promotion of Petroleum Exploration and Exploitation (SAAPEE). Key provisions include a 20% free-carry state participation right for PETROSA (the state oil company, formerly PetroSA) and mandatory black persons' equity participation in exploration and production rights, modelled on the mining sector's black economic empowerment requirements. The Act covers reconnaissance permits, exploration rights, production rights, and retention permits, providing greater regulatory certainty for international exploration companies. The timing is significant: TotalEnergies, Shell, and other majors have been exploring in the Orange Basin off the Southern African coast, with the Brulpadda and Luiperd fields (operated by TotalEnergies) representing potential multi-billion barrel reserves whose development has been delayed by legislative uncertainty. Gas discoveries in the Karoo and offshore could provide a domestic supply solution to the looming industrial gas shortage.

Assessment

Growth Impact3/5
Feasibility2/5

Responsible: Department of Mineral Resources and Energy / PASA / National Treasury

Feasibility Assessment

Medium: Bill introduced 2024; Parliamentary passage expected 2025. Fiscal regime design (royalty rates, community obligations) is the contested dimension. Environmental authorisation for offshore blocks remains a parallel process.

Stakeholder Landscape

Who backs this reform, who needs convincing, and which interests or red lines shape political feasibility.

Backers

9

1 stakeholder

Negotiation weight

7

1 conditional actor

Opposition weight

0

0 opposing actors

Coalition Read

AI-drafted stances · 0 reviewed

2 of 38 actors mapped — not scored

A coalition score needs at least 3 mapped stances, or actors carrying 25% of the map's influence. The stances below are the evidence; the average over this few of them would not be.

Anchor: National Treasury. Highest-leverage swing actor: DTIC (Dept. of Trade, Industry & Competition).

Political Tractability

—Needs reviewed signals

No reviewed signals · 0% of mapped influence has been reviewed.

Backers1 stakeholder
National TreasuryCoalition anchorInfluence 9/10

Treasury supports the Petroleum Resources Development Bill as domestic oil and gas exploration could reduce import dependency and generate royalties.

Interest: Fiscal consolidation with public debt stabilising below 75% of GDP; structural reforms that improve revenue without expanding contingent liabilities;…

Concern: Unfunded mandates in energy transition (JETP co-financing); Eskom's R400bn+ debt and how restructuring socialises costs; reform proposals that create…

Engagement path: Reforms must be fiscally neutral or revenue-positive over the MTEF window; SOE restructuring must demonstrably reduce contingent liabilities; credible…

Negotiation Priorities1 stakeholder
DTIC (Dept. of Trade, Industry & Competition)Negotiation priorityInfluence 7/10

DTIC supports upstream petroleum development only with adequate local content and beneficiation requirements.

Interest: Industrial policy objectives — local content requirements, beneficiation, BBBEE transformation, SEZ development, and protection of manufacturing emplo…

Concern: Full logistics liberalisation without local content protections could hollow out domestic manufacturing by reducing input costs asymmetrically for ext…

Engagement path: Logistics and energy reforms include localisation provisions and domestic content requirements; trade agreements include industrial policy safeguards;…

Brulpadda and Luiperd sit unexploited while SA suffers load-shedding — the UPRD Bill is the key that unlocks a domestic gas future. — TotalEnergies SA, PC on Mineral Resources 2024

Implementation Roadmap

The Upstream Petroleum Resources Development Act, assented to by President Ramaphosa in November 2024, ends decades of legal ambiguity under the MPRDA and establishes a dedicated framework administered by SAAPEE. Implementation focuses on the regulations, licensing systems, and institutional capacity required to operationalise the Act and attract investment into the Orange Basin discoveries. TotalEnergies (Brulpadda/Luiperd), Shell, and other majors have been awaiting regulatory certainty; the Act's passage is expected to unlock several billion dollars of exploration and development investment. PETROSA's 20% free-carry and the black equity requirements must be operationalised with sufficient flexibility to avoid deterring investors while meeting transformation objectives.

1

Publish the UPRDA regulations in the Government Gazette: technical specifications for reconnaissance permits, exploration rights, production rights, and retention permits; SAAPEE licensing portal and fee schedule

Q1–Q3 2025DMRE / SAAPEE
2

Operationalise SAAPEE: appoint board and CEO, establish licensing division, environmental compliance unit, and community liaison function; transfer MPRDA petroleum licensing files to SAAPEE

Q1–Q2 2025DMRE
3

Gazette the Black Equity Participation framework under the UPRDA: minimum black equity thresholds, BBBEE scoring methodology, and the carried-interest mechanism for PETROSA's 20% free-carry

Q2–Q3 2025DMRE / SAAPEE / dtic
4

Issue first-round UPRDA exploration rights in the Orange Basin: invite applications from TotalEnergies, Shell, and other qualified operators; process within the 90-day statutory timeline

Q3 2025–Q2 2026SAAPEE / DMRE
5

Negotiate and finalise the development plan for Brulpadda/Luiperd fields with TotalEnergies: production sharing terms, gas-to-power supply commitment, and domestic market obligation defining minimum SA gas supply volumes

2025–2027DMRE / SAAPEE / PETROSA / National Treasury
6

Publish PETROSA transformation roadmap: corporate restructuring from PetroSA to PETROSA under the UPRDA framework; commercialisation strategy for the free-carry interest

Q3 2025–Q2 2026DMRE / PETROSA Board
Timeline

UPRDA assented November 2024; SAAPEE operationalised Q2 2025; regulations published Q3 2025; first Orange Basin rights Q2 2026; Brulpadda development FID 2027–2028

Estimated Cost

SAAPEE establishment: R200 million over 3 years (government). PETROSA restructuring: R50–100 million. Private sector exploration investment expected: R5–15 billion over 5 years. Fiscal revenue at peak production (2035+): petroleum royalties, corporate tax, and PETROSA dividends estimated at R10–30 billion/year.

Required Legislation

Upstream Petroleum Resources Development Act (enacted November 2024): the primary instrument. UPRDA regulations (subordinate legislation) to be published. Consequential amendment to the MPRDA to remove petroleum provisions. PETROSA formation requires corporate restructuring under the Companies Act.

Political Feasibility

The UPRDA has cross-party support: ANC (resource nationalism via PETROSA free-carry), DA (investment certainty), and EFF (state participation) all see aligned elements. Minerals Council SA and SAOGA are engaged in the regulatory process. Environmental NGOs oppose offshore drilling; DFFE EIA process is the key battleground.

International Precedents

Norway's Equinor model — state participation through a carried interest in private licences — is the global reference for free-carry structures. Angola's Sonangol and Nigeria's NNPC provide African precedents for managing state participation alongside international major investment. Mozambique's LNG development (ENH + TotalEnergies) is the most directly comparable offshore gas development in the region.

Evidence & Research

No linked research evidence yet. Coverage is incomplete.

Policy documents

No linked official-document evidence yet. Coverage is incomplete.

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Status History

tracked since Mar 2026
  1. Recorded as Stalled when status tracking began — held since at least Mar 2026.
    Mar 2026

Data as of 2026-10-10 · latest PMG meeting 2026-10-02